Bird flu, WHO: there will be other cases among humans but for now low risk
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There will be “other human cases of flu” but “the risk for the population remains low”. Thus the World Health Organization (WHO) in an update on human infections of avian flu (H5N1) that are being recorded in some countries, the last one being Cambodia with two cases. On the possibility of a new risk assessment, WHO specifies that “it will be reviewed as soon as further epidemiological or virological information becomes available”.
Avian flu in humans, what WHO says
At the moment, for the WHO there is no risk of a pandemic even if “the virus continues to be detected in poultry populations, further human cases can be expected”. From 2003 to February 25, 2023, WHO recalls, there were “a total of 873 human cases of influenza A (H5N1) infection and 458 deaths were reported globally from 21 countries”.
While further characterization of the virus from recent human cases is pending, available epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that current A(H5) viruses have not acquired the ability to transmit between human beings. humans, so the likelihood of ‘sustained’ human-to-human spread is low.” Here “on the basis of the information available so far”, the WHO assesses “the risk for the general population represented by this virus as low”.
WHO, through its Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (Gisrs), “monitors the evolution of the virus, conducts risk assessment and recommends the development of new vaccine candidates for pandemic preparedness”.
Cases among animals near peak
The avian flu season that has sparked concern from international health authorities in recent weeks could be nearing its peak. It supports it World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) in its three-weekly infection update. He estimates that, in the last three weeks, 2.5 million animals have died or been culled due to flu.
“Using data reported to the World Organization for Animal Health between 2005 and 2019, prevalence is lowest in September, starts to rise in October, and peaks in February.” However, the season is not over yet: in the last three weeks, 37 outbreaks have been reported in poultry and about 120 in other birds. Among them are the first outbreak in poultry in Bolivia and the first in wild birds in Cuba and Ecuador. In addition, approximately 2.5 million animals died or were culled due to bird flu during this period.
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The variant that caused the cases in Cambodia
The World Health Organization has also announced that the avian influenza A/H5N1 virus strain that killed a girl in Cambodia is a variant called clade 2.3.2.1c. This variant has been circulating in Southeast Asian poultry since at least 2014 and has already been responsible for other sporadic infections. There are therefore no links between the new case of avian flu in humans and the infections that have affected birds and mammals all over the world in recent months, which are instead mainly due to clade 2.3.2.1b.
“Whenever avian influenza viruses circulate in poultry, there is a risk of sporadic infection or small clusters of human cases due to exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments,” WHO clarified yesterday. in a statement, in which he noted that, “although we await further characterization of the virus from these human cases, the available epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that the current A/H5 viruses have not acquired the sustained transmission capacity among humans, so the likelihood of sustained human-to-human spread is low.”
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For this reason, “based on the information available so far, WHO assesses the risk to the general population posed by this virus as low,” he added. WHO has also advised against any form of travel and trade restrictions with Cambodia, as well as the application of screening measures to travellers.
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