Afghanistan: Restrictions on women’s rights contribute to worsening the current economic crisis and reduce humanitarian aid

ROME – Although some economic indicators improved slightly in 2022, growth remains below the levels needed to break Afghanistan’s spiral of poverty. Decisions that limit women’s education and work also threaten a reduction in humanitarian aid, with very serious consequences for the general state of health of the population. A new study on Afghanistan’s economy done by UNDP – the United Nations Development Program – shows that without women’s education and employment the prospects for the country’s recovery are bleak.

I study. The UNDP analysis, entitled “Afghanistan Socio-Economic Outlook 2023“, published in Kabul, details how Afghanistan’s economic output plummeted by 20.7 percent after the Taliban took power in 2021. This slump, unmatched anywhere in the world, helps maintain the ‘Afghanistan among the poorest countries in the world.

The collapse of GDP and foreign aid. Despite tentative signs of recovery such as a relatively stable exchange rate, rising exports, growing demand for labor and subdued inflation, GDP is estimated to have further declined by 3.6 percent in 2022. “An inflow A substantial amount of foreign aid, amounting to $3.7 billion in 2022, helped to avoid the final collapse of Afghanistan,” explained Abdallah Al Dardari, UNDP Representative in Kabul. The United Nations has contributed $3.2 billion and with its aid has directly reached 26.1 million Afghans, thus helping to stabilize the exchange rate, curb inflation and influence some economic indicators.

Future prospects. The new report predicts that GDP in 2023 could increase by 1.3 percent if the level of foreign aid remains at least $3.7 billion. However, the long-term prospects for economic recovery remain weak and insufficient, especially if foreign aid were to drop due to the restrictive policies imposed by the Taliban, especially to the detriment of women.

The role of women. There can be no sustainable and stable recovery without the active participation of Afghan women in the economy and public life, explained Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP regional director for Asia and the Pacific. Only the full continuity of girls’ education and the ability of women to work can keep alive the hope of real progress in the country. Edicts restricting women’s rights, including a directive banning Afghan women from working for the United Nations, directly affect economic productivity and can also impact the level of foreign aid.

What if the aid runs out? The new UNDP document analyzes the potential impact of a hypothetical cut in foreign aid on Afghanistan’s economy. If, for example, a 30 percent cut were to occur and therefore a reduction in aid from $3.7 billion to $2.6 billion, the UNDP predicts that the country’s GDP would contract by a further 0.4 percent and the ‘Afghanistan would drop directly to the bottom of the ranking of the world’s poorest countries.

The factors that determine poverty. The study finds that impoverished Afghans are already taking extreme measures to survive. Some have been forced to sell their homes, land or income-generating assets; others have resorted to the painful practice of selling off their family members, turning children into laborers and young daughters into brides, the report reads. Unfortunately, the years of war, the return of the Taliban, the effects of the pandemic and those of a very serious drought, have caused a contraction of the economy of 20.7 percent, which concretely translates into the loss of food, livelihoods and the possibility of accessing essential services, including health services, explains Achim Steiner of the UNDP in a note. Only the continued supply of humanitarian and international aid, for now, has prevented the final collapse of the country. The number of people living in poverty in Afghanistan rose from 19 million in 2020 to 34 million in 2022.