A statist mirage dazzles the West. The new book by Rampini- Corriere.it

To curb Chinese economic and political aggression, must the West itself become more Chinese? Accepting the ground on which Beijing takes the challenge, that is, a capitalism led by the state (by the Communist Party in his case) and a less liberal political system? None of the democratic and market economy governments of America, Europe and Asia will explicitly answer yes. But the signs that the propensity to give centralistic responses to the strong pressure of the Asian authoritarian giant are now too many not to legitimize the suspicion that the trend is conquering politicians, intellectuals and parts of public opinion.

Of course, in recent years geopolitics has taken over the economic, technological and cultural forces that have supported the globalization of the past thirty to forty years. And open systems must defend themselves against attacks from authoritarian systems, whether they come from Russia, China, Iran or smaller dictatorships. But questioning and tarnishing one’s strengths – the free market, competition, guarantees against political abuse – will not be the winning choice of the West in this historical passage in which much is decided on the future of the world. In the game of dirigisme, the dirigiste wins, not the free societies. Copying the policies and methods of Xi Jinping’s China is a declaration of defeat.

In his new bookstore from Tuesday 8 November – The long winter. False apocalypses, real crises but the state will not save uspublished by Mondadori – Federico Rampini notes that, in front of the disorientation of our times, “Some of us seek a refuge similar to that offered by authoritarian regimes: more and more state, the protection of a strong hand. A shift towards oriental models, associated with the revaluation of public dirigisme, is a possible answer: in part already underway. Will it be a worse solution than the evil? “

In fact, the upside in the energy world in recent months has led, for example, the governments of Germany and France to nationalize companies hit by the crisis: perhaps it was necessary to prevent them from going bankrupt. But the push for more state intervention in the economy predates Putin’s war in Ukraine. Competition policies in Europe have long since weakened, at the push of Berlin and Paris, with the excuse of opposing Chinese companies. In the United States, Washington’s intervention in favoring some economic sectors over others is not far from the pretense of Beijing bureaucrats to know what the future of science and innovation will be.

These are just examples, but the return of the state to the center of the economy is visible everywhere. In part motivated by the need to respond to the coronavirus crisis and in part forced by the invasion of Ukraine. Rampini, however, goes beyond these recent events and identifies the reasons for this search for protection by the state in the confusion in which the West is debating. There are real, indisputable crises – he says. But there are also «False apocalypses, announced by prophets interested in sowing fears“. The risk is that this political and mental chaos will take us into a “long winter”. And it is by no means just economics that Rampini deals with in the book. There is a triangle to which it is necessary to look to understand the historical ruptures and the passages of the era, he says: energy, money, weapons. Three fields in which we Europeans are extraordinarily late: which could make our winter even darker.

The author is extremely lucid in identifying and analyzing the threats looming over open societies and the psychological and intellectual confusion in which they struggle. Deepens the energy crisis: in its reasons and in the responsibilities of those who favored it. Enter that contradictory and never-western world that is Russia. Study the inflation that has returned to impoverish us after decades of stable prices. He talks about China, where he lived as a correspondent, about his economic miracle but also about its considerable internal and external weaknesses. He reads wars. Always with an approach that he refuses to adapt to mainstream arguments, based generally on the supposed responsibilities of the West and capitalism for the ills of the world.

Speaking of apocalypses, for example, the chapter dedicated to “Food and climate” notes that, fifty years after the movement that theorized the “limits of development”, none of those who supported it was seriously corrected and self-criticized despite his predictions have been disproved by reality. And that “the fact that they did not come true did not cure us of the catastrophism. On the contrary”. Agriculture, to say, is able to feed humanity, Unlike what was argued at the time: the limits are not given by production capacity, but rather by prices or ideological nonsense. Among the many other cases, Rampini also recalls that of Sri Lanka, an island that ended up in a very serious food crisis because in 2021 the government banned the import of chemical fertilizers at the push of ultra-environmental advisors.

However, Rampini is not desperately pessimistic. The Western model has overcome economic crises over the decades, wars, revolutions: it has always come out stronger, it has created more and more well-being, it has produced freedom. He will win “if he does not admire those who hate him.”

The analysis

It is called The long winter (Mondadori, pages 240, euro 19) the new essay by Federico Rampini, which analyzes the risks facing the West in a phase characterized by multiple crises, some real and others inflated by the heralds of disasters. Federico Rampini, born in Genoa in 1956, is a columnist for the Corriere della Sera. Previously he was deputy director of “Sole 24 Ore”, columnist, correspondent and correspondent of “la Repubblica”. He has taught at the Universities of Berkeley, Shanghai, and at SDA Bocconi. Among the books of Federico Rampini, translated into various languages: America (Solferino, 2022); Western suicide (Mondadori, 2022); The empire of Cindia (Mondadori, 2006); The Chinese century (Mondadori, 2005)