Who goes to the Champions League? The situation after the penalty of Juventus-Corriere.it

The ten penalty points against Juventus obviously change the scenarios in terms of qualifying for the next Champions League. If, yesterday, in theory, the bianconeri would still have had a good chance of hitting the target – net of further sanctions -, the defeat at Empoli, a probable consequence of the shock from the penalty, reduces them by a lot. Here’s what can happen in the last two days.

The new ranking

1. Napoli 86 (Italian champion)
2. Lazio 68 (arithmetically already in the Champions League)
3. Inter 66
4.Milan 64
5. Atalanta 61
6. Rome 60
7. Juventus 59 (-10)

The scenarios

From seventh place upwards it is still possible to hit the two places available to participate in the next Champions League. What does the calendar foresee and what happens in the event of an equal number of points?

The calendar

Given that the date of 4 June has yet to be confirmed given that advances and postponements have not yet been disclosed, this is the situation. Are provided therefore two direct challenges for this race: the one between Juventus and Milan and that between Inter and Atalantaboth between 27 and 28 May.

Inter

May 27 tackles
Atalanta
on 4 June Turin.
Regardless of whether or not they won the Champions League final on 10 June, and net of the results of the other teams, are guaranteed to finish in the top four in Serie A if:
•didn’t lose against Atalanta;
•if they lose to Atalanta with a single goal difference and draw, at least, against Torino;
•lose to Atalanta with more than a goal difference and beat Torino.

Milan

Milan

: on May 28 he faces the
Juventus
in Turin, on June 4th the
Verona
at the San Siro. You qualify for the 2023/24 Champions League if:
• wins at least one of the two matches: at an altitude of 67, they can be reached by Atalanta, who however are at a disadvantage in direct matches. We’ll go into more detail later on regarding the separate standings also with Inter;
• draw at least one of the two matches and both Roma and Atalanta fail to win at least one of their two matches;
• draws the two matches and Atalanta drops points along the way: if they are caught up by Roma (two wins) who however don’t improve their goal difference by more than ten goals, they qualify.

Atalanta

Atalanta

: on May 27 he faces the‘Interon June 4 the Monza.
You qualify for the 2023/24 Champions League if you win both matches and:
• if Inter also lose against Torino;
• if Milan don’t collect more than two points.

Rome

On May 27th he faces Fiorentina away, on June 4th against Spezia. He enters the Champions League if he wins his two matches and:
• Atalanta beat Inter and draw or lose to Monza and Milan didn’t get more than two points.
• Atalanta beats Inter and draws or loses against Monza, Inter also loses against Turin, Milan doesn’t get more than two points: the standings apart would reward Inter (7 points) and the Giallorossi for number of goals scored in the group at 66.

Juventus

On May 28, he faces the Milan; on June 4th Udinese. Only qualify if:
• Wins both games, beating Milan by more than two goals who then draw or worse against Verona, also with Atalanta who do not get two victories and with Roma who do not win both matches.
• In the event that they finish level on points with Milan and Atalanta on 65 points (one win and one draw for the Nerazzurri, only one draw for the Rossoneri against Verona), he wouldn’t even need the two-goal difference: the standings take over which sees Juventus and Milan paired on 7 points but with the black and whites with a better goal difference.

Inter champion of Europe?

If already qualified through the league, it will not free up a place in the Champions League. In order for Italy to have five teams in the tournament’s groups, it is necessary that Inter or the Rome win the respective finals of the Champions League (June 10 against Manchester City for Simone Inzaghi’s men) and Europa League (May 31 against Seville for Mourinho’s men) remaining outside the top four spots in the standings.