The EU recommendations encourage Giorgetti to stand up to Salvini and Forza Italia

The European Union recommendations published yesterday relating to Italy’s Stability Plan and National Recovery and Resilience Program do not contain any serious news. The exercise that the Commission is attempting – i.e. immediately applying the criterion of reducing net primary public expenditure against the debt excess, i.e. without considering interest on debt, employment support and one-off revenues, the criterion proposed in the draft reform of the EU Stability Pact which however will not be approved before the end of the year – confirms what we had already written. The multi-year public finance scenario envisaged for Italy by the Budget law approved at the end of 2022 by the current government not only complies with the quantitative criterion of reduction of net primary expenditure indicated by Brussels but also sets more ambitious objectives, i.e. spending reductions or increase in revenues starting from 2024 slightly higher than we would be expected to, but necessary to achieve and maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP, making the gradual decline in public debt credible. As yesterday’s recommendations punctually confirm.