The Dbrs rating agency: “Italy is resisting the shocks and growth is stronger”

MILAN. “In recent years, Italy has faced multiple shocks: the pandemic, supply-side bottlenecks and the energy shock, all amidst political uncertainty and three different governments. However, none of these adverse events have so far translated into significant economic scars, contributing to the stability of Italy’s rating at BBB. Dbrs Morningstar points this out in a report. “Italy’s post-pandemic recovery has been better than expected and growth has been stronger than its peers. Potential GDP growth appears to be improving and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue declining in the coming years, albeit more slowly than in the last two years”, underlines the report which forecasts “higher economic growth than in the pre-pandemic period, together with a progressive improvement in the public balance which contributes to the future decline in the debt/GDP ratio”.

According to Dbrs Morningstar «the multiple shocks do not seem to have altered Italy’s economic fundamentals, while potential growth estimates are higher than in the past. Post-pandemic economic performance has been better than major Eurozone countries, reflecting solid resilience to lockdowns, the energy shock and high inflation. In the first quarter of 2023, the real level of GDP was 2.4% higher than in the pre-covid period, one percentage point higher than that of France, while the GDP levels of Germany and Spain remain close or slightly below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019. Moreover, the latest projections of the European Commission point to an improvement in Italy’s potential growth in the coming years, despite the severe economic downturn during the pandemic and the gas shortage.

The Commission forecasts that the Italian GDP will have increased from a growth rate slightly below zero in the period 2009-2021 to around 0.9% from 2022 to 2027, reflecting both the expected boost from the reforms and from the investments linked to the recovery plan of the ‘Italy, and from a growing employment.