«Italy’s GDP will grow by 1.1% in 2023 and 2024, but implement Pnrr and reduce the debt»- Corriere.it

The Italian GDP will grow by 1.1% in 2023 and 2024 and then accelerate further in 2025, also thanks to the support of the Pnrr. The International Monetary Fund, which revised upwards the growth forecast for Italy compared to the 0.7% set for this year in the April report. The Economy Minister also spoke about growth forecasts for Italy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, at the Trento Festival of Economics. I think a GDP of 1.2-1.4% is a good omen. I look at the German economy and I deduce that it will create some problems for our industry, but there are services that should compensate. The government has always been cautious about estimates, Giorgetti said.

The thrust of the Pnrr on growth

Meanwhile, according to the Monetary Fund, Italy hopes to compensate for the German slowdown with the investments implemented as part of the recovery and resilience plan: to increase productivity and stimulate growth, the full and timely implementation of the Pnrr is necessary, explains the IMF in fact in the note released at the end of the ex Article 4 mission in our country. Given the high public debt and tighter financial conditions, saving windfall income from inflation and accounting changes is advisable. A credible medium-term debt reduction plan would further mitigate debt-related risks, warn Washington technicians.

IMF: greater fragmentation of the economy

Rising geopolitical tensions raise the prospects for greater fragmentation of the global economy, which could create significant output losses and greater price volatility if the flows of goods, knowledge and capital are disrupted, the IMF explained, noting that at the European level, Italy can support solutions that address these risks while preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism. At the national level, Italy can strengthen its resilience to fragmentation by improving efficiency and productivity, identifying specific products exposed to the risk of fragmentation and developing strategies to deal with potential disruptions. The IMF adds that accelerating the green transition would strengthen energy security.

Reforms Pnrr

The reforms of the Pnrr, underlines the Fund, are aimed at filling many shortcomings that hold back productivity and should be implemented fully and promptly. Strengthening the administrative and executive capacity of local authorities would favor efficient management of the large volume of projects and measures to speed up procedures should promote competition and the integrity of financial resources.