How the Serie A standings change after the Juventus-Corriere.it penalty

In the hearing on Monday 22 May 2023 before the Federal Court of Appeal (which must reformulate the original penalty of 15 points) for the capital gains case, the prosecutor in the person of Giuseppe Chin asked for a penalty of 11 points for the Bianconeri.

Here’s how the Serie A standings would change two days from the end if this penalty were confirmed by the Court.

1. Napoli 86 (Italian champion)
2. Lazio 68
3. Inter 66
4.Milan 64
5. Atalanta 61
6. Roma 59 (35 games played, played against Salernitana at 6pm)
7. Juventus 58 (35 games played, played tonight in Empoli, -11)
8.Monza 52
9. Bologna 50
10. Turin 50
11. Fiorentina 50
12. Udinese 46
13. Sassuolo 44
14. Empoli 39 (35 games played, receives Juventus tonight)
15. Salernitana 38 (35 matches played, played tonight at Roma’s home)
16. Lecce 33
17. Spice 31
18. Verona 30
19. Cremonese 24 (relegated to Serie B)
20. Sampdoria 18 (relegated to Serie B)

Here you are what are the matches of the six teams that play the Champions League:

Juventus: play against today Empoli; on May 28 he faces the Milan; on June 4th Udinese.

Lazio: on May 28 he faces the Cremonaon June 4th Empoli.

Inter: May 27 tackles Atalantaon June 4 the Turin.

Milan: on May 28 he faces the Juventuson June 4 the Verona

Atalanta: on May 27 he faces the‘Interon June 4 the Turin.

Rome: on May 27 he faces the FlorentineJune 4 lo Spice.

The calendar therefore foresees two direct challenges for this race: the one between Juventus and Milan and that between Inter and Atalantaboth between 27 and 28 May.

Up front, the black and whites would still have Naples And Lazio (68 points).

If the Juventus should he win all three matches, and the penalty is upheld, the bianconeri would be at 67 points.

The Milan, despite winning the last match against Verona, he would be at 67; having won in the first leg (2-0) and – in this simulation – lost to the black and whites in the second leg, the goal difference between the two teams would count.

At Interto stay ahead of Juve, two points would be needed in the last two games (we repeat, against Atalanta and Turin).

Atalanta, winning both (in addition to Inter there is Monza) he would be at 67; Juve up front, due to direct clashes (3-3 in the first leg, 0-2 in the second leg).

There Romewinning all three games (after today’s Fiorentina away and hosts Spezia), he would end up with 68 points, above Juventus.

Cases with detached classification

There are also theoretical cases of reaching 67 points for more than two teams at the same time. In this case, the direct results count in a sort of mini group that excludes all the other points obtained. Roma cannot in any way reach 67 points (with 3 wins they go to 68, with two wins and a draw to 66).
Let’s see what can happen:

Milan, Atalanta and Juventus at 67 points

(with Inter having by definition lost to Atalanta and Milan to Juventus and with Roma not collecting 9 points)
— if Inter beat Torino (69 points) there is only one place left in the Champions League area. The standings say Milan 7, Juventus 4, Atalanta 2. Milan would go to the Champions League.
— If Inter lose against Torino (66 points) two places remain: Milan and Juventus in the Champions League.
(If Roma had collected 9 points, odds of 68, the avulsa for the Champions League would only enter the scene if Inter failed to win).

Milan, Atalanta, Juventus and Inter at 67 points

If Inter draw with Torino too at 67, (always maintaining by definition the results of the match between the two Nerazzurri and Milan-Juventus):
— With Roma scoring 3 victories we would have a place available for the Champions League and this ranking: Milan 10, Juventus 8, Inter 7, Atalanta 5. Milan in the Champions League
— With Roma collecting less than nine points, two places available for the Champions League: Milan and Juventus — net of new measures — qualified for the Champions League.