Gentiloni and the risk of recession “avoided. On the Pnrr: “Now Italy must accelerate”. And on the Stability Pact: “Proposals quickly”

From the risk of recession (“avoided”), to the theme of the stability pact that analysts (and others) would not like to return to pre-pandemic management. And then, precisely, the management of Covid and the war “two black swans that have swept across Europe”. And then, above all, the Pnrr in the face of which “now Italy must accelerate”.

From Florence, through a video message to the national conference of the Chambers of Commerce, the European commissioner for economic affairs Paolo Gentiloni touches on several topics. Starting with the National Recovery and Resilience Plan: «Italy has the extraordinary opportunity of the Pnrr on its side. Many of the goals achieved so far were in a sense preparatory, necessary for investment and reforms to get underway. Now we need to speed up. The implementation of Pnrr programs depend on both public and private actors. It is therefore necessary to strengthen the link between the government, the local administrations and the business world» said Gentiloni. “It is precisely the improvement in the climate of business and consumer confidence that is one of the factors that has driven strong growth in the economy over the last two years,” explained Gentiloni. «The Italian and European economies seemed to be headed towards recession, squeezed by the energy crisis and double-digit inflation. Today that risk has eased. GDP in the last quarter of the year underwent only a slight contraction of 0.1%, while inflation fell by more than 2 points compared to the peak of recent months with energy prices down to pre-crisis levels». And again: «Despite a sharp reduction of over 20% in gas consumption, industrial production held up and employment continued to grow, +0.2% in January according to the latest Istat data, 460,000 more employed compared to January 2022 – observed Gentiloni – Of course, the situation is not all rosy, on the contrary, our winter economic forecasts estimate growth of 0.8% for Italy for this year and the latest OECD estimates of the last week they are on similar values, therefore a very limited growth ». «Inflation it remains very high – argued Gentiloni – but Putin’s energy blackmail has failed, dependence on Russian gas has decreased and the surge in energy prices is now behind us. We can look forward with cautious optimism».
The Stability Pact
Another issue, the stability pact which needs to be relaxed and won’t have to be as stringent as it was before the Covid explosion. «Europe can meet the challenge of growth thanks to a more reasonable framework of rules and public finances. Ten days ago the Ecofin council reached an initial agreement on the reform of the stability pact. Among these more gradual debt reduction paths, specific for the countries linked to the commitment to carry out reforms and investments in our common priorities, we count on presenting our proposals for legislative amendments to the pact very quickly” underlined the European Commissioner for economic affairs which, then, speaking of Covid and war, expressed himself as follows: «The answer to the two black swans that have hit Europe in recent years, first the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine with the energy crisis, it was a more effective response than in past crises, simply because it was a response characterized by unity, solidarity and courage. And it is with this same spirit that we must continue to work to design the future in Italy and in Europe. With everyone’s contribution, I’m sure we will succeed.”