Dems at 20.4%. The League (8.2%) surpasses Forza Italia. Stable consensus for government and prime minister. The leaders: first place for Conte, Berlusconi and Schlein
The month of May was very eventful and full of political and non-political events: by the work decree passed on May 1st, the confrontation between the government and the opposition on institutional reforms with particular attention paid to the issue of presidentialism and the premiership; from the appointments of some institutional top management to those of investee companies including Rai; from the administrative elections which involved about six and a half million voters, to tensions with France following the declarations of the transalpine interior minister on the management of migratory flows by our executive; from the visit of Ukrainian President Zelensky to Italy, to international summits (the Council of Europe in Reykjavik and the G7 in Japan), to finish with the dramatic situation in Emilia-Romagna
following the flood. It is natural to wonder what impact all these facts have had on the national political scenarioalso following the heated debate and the controversies that some of them have aroused.
Well, today's poll showswith few exceptions,
a substantial stability in the opinions of Italians compared to April, starting from the assessments onL
'action of the government and the Prime Minister which do register a increase in both positive reviews (two points) and negative ones (one point for the executive, two for the premier), leaving the approval rating of both unchanged, which stands at 51 and 53 respectively. In fact, a substantial polarization of opinion is confirmedIt is probable that the density of the events of the month determined a multiplicity of compensatory effects in the reactions of the citizens, as in a sort of zero-sum game.
As for the voting guidelinesthe most significant data
represented by 1.5 point decline of the M5S which, with 15% of the votes, for the first time is estimated at values lower than the result obtained in last year's Policies; in today's poll we tested separately Action and Italy alive following the tensions between the two political forces whose outcome, moreover, in view of next year's European elections is not easy to decipher. The estimates of the two parties show a difference of only half a point, with 3.5% Action and 3% Iv. Overall there are changes of a few decimals compared to a month ago: FdI remains in first place with 29.6% reversing the downward trend recorded in the previous two months; the Democratic Party is confirmed in second place with 20.4% (-0.3%), followed by the M5S, by the Lega (8.2%) and Forza Italia (7.7%). The share of abstainers and undecided is also stable and remains considerable (39.5%). On the basis of these estimates, the centre-right clearly prevails over the centre-left (46.5% to 25.7%) and at the moment, taking into account that the next electoral deadline represented by the European elections which envisage the proportional method (which means all against all), other coalition hypotheses (centre-left and M5S or the revival of the wide field), even more competitive with the centre-right, are completely premature.
Finally, the approval of the leaders: in first place is a trio represented by Conte, Berlusconi and Schlein, with an approval rating of 31. The leader of Forza Italia, who recently returned after a long hospital stay, recorded a growth of 10 points compared to October last year, when he reached the lowest point of popularity. The dem secretary marks the second consecutive decline which can be attributed in part to the increase in her notoriety (which also sees the share of those who do not appreciate her grow), in part to the choice of positioning and of the political agenda of the Democratic Party which have led to tensions within the party. Following in the ranking is Salvini, stable at 29, and further behind are Lupi (21), Fratoianni (20) and Bonelli (19), then Calenda (17), which records the most significant drop, and Renzi (14). Therefore, the month of May closes under the banner of stability, despite all that has happened. With all due respect to the fans of all factions.
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May 27, 2023 (change May 27, 2023 | 07:17)
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